Critical minerals and net zero

Download a copy of Dr Pierre Josso's presentation.

Mapping criticality: minerals at the heart of net zero transition

The panel opened by framing why critical minerals are central to net zero ambitions. From the minerals underpinning battery technologies to rare earth elements essential for wind turbines and electronics, the transition to low-carbon technologies depends on reliable critical mineral supply chains. Since critical minerals are geographically concentrated and mined in a small number of countries, the criticality of a mineral is not simply a geological issue but also shaped by economic and geopolitical factors.

Dr Pierre Josso began by highlighting how climate change is leading to significant shifts in the demand for critical minerals: fossil fuels are being phased out, new technologies are emerging, and renewable energy is growing exponentially, driving demand for minerals. Yet the real concern, he stressed, is how we mine - are we doing so responsibly, ensuring environmental and social safeguards?

Pierre highlighted that while the UK’s updated criticality assessment (published in November 2024) has identified 34 critical raw materials, supply risk assessments must remain dynamic, as technological shifts and geopolitical developments can rapidly alter risk profiles. Looking ahead, he noted that the next step is to align with the forthcoming UK Critical Minerals Strategy from the Department for Business and Trade and focus on increasing domestic supply, strengthening recycling and recovery, and building international partnerships to de-risk supply chains.

Investor perspectives and changing geopolitics

Niva Thiruchelvam brought an investor perspective from her experience at Hakluyt, outlining the main trends shaping the sector. Investors, she noted, are looking for high-quality, focused critical mineral assets rather than broad diversification as well as demanding increased policy certainty before committing long-term capital. Without clear political commitment and policy consensus, investors may divert capital elsewhere, underlining the importance of stable frameworks to support the net zero transition.

Niva explained how critical minerals are now being treated as national security assets, sparking a global race for control and leading states to prioritise bilateral agreements over multilateralism, creating a zero-sum landscape. US-China trade dynamics heavily influence investment decisions, while big tech companies are also becoming key players in securing critical mineral supply chains.

Niva also highlighted the dissonance between widespread support for net zero and opposition to extractive industries, noting the need to hold mining companies accountable through ESG standards while supporting compliant, transparent, and sustainable players. Technological advances, including mineral recycling and synthetic mineral manufacturing, offer hope for reducing dependence on primary mining and building more resilient supply chains.

Technology pathways and demand management

Dr Sam Stephenson from the Climate Compatible Growth project at the University of Cambridge, underlined the pivotal role of technology choices in determining the scale of future mineral demand. He discussed the intersection of UK decarbonisation needs with the Global South’s transitions, noting that governments have significant agency in defining what minerals are critical and shaping demand through technology and policy pathways.

Modelling alternative pathways, such as low-energy demand scenarios, can substantially reduce the volume of critical minerals required while enhancing resilience. This reframes demand reduction and energy efficiency not only as climate strategies but also as tools for reducing geopolitical and supply chain vulnerabilities. He highlighted opportunities to recover critical materials from end-of-life vehicles and electronics, with a need for policy frameworks that enable systematic recycling and secondary supply chain development.

Data-driven transparency in global supply chains

Deepesh Jayasekara from the Institute for Manufacturing highlighted the need for multidisciplinary approaches to address the complexity of critical mineral supply chains, showcasing the work from the UK-India Critical Minerals Observatory. He noted that current supply chains operate with limited visibility, with many “grey” supply chains hidden and unaudited, posing significant disruption risks if left unaddressed.

Data challenges, including inaccessibility, paywalls, and inconsistent accuracy, hinder effective oversight. Deepesh described how the Observatory leverages satellite data, AI tools, and open data to map supply chains from mine to end product, identifying blind spots and emissions impacts while enhancing traceability and transparency. The platform aims to provide policymakers, industry, and researchers with granular, actionable data to inform decisions around sustainability and resilience. By triangulating multiple data sources and acknowledging data uncertainties, the Observatory seeks to strengthen ESG assessments, improve monitoring of emissions and social impacts, and facilitate the transition from research to practical decision-making tools.

Future frontiers and present priorities

The audience discussion revealed key tensions in the transition to sustainable mineral use. While deep sea mining was proposed as an alternative to terrestrial extraction, its environmental impacts remain uncertain and difficult to manage. Space-based manufacturing emerged as a long-term possibility, but the panel emphasised that near-term priorities lie in scaling recycling, advancing circular economy practices, and establishing clear, equitable policy frameworks to guide responsible resource use and attract investment.

The panel closed with a shared recognition that the critical minerals challenge is not merely technical but deeply interconnected with geopolitical, social, and ethical dimensions. As the UK prepares to release its updated critical minerals strategy, insights from research, industry, and investment will be essential in shaping a transition that is not only net zero-aligned but also economically resilient, ethically grounded, and geopolitically informed.